Offering > Horizon
State-of-the-art prognostic capabilities:
By complementing condition prognostics with refined condition-related malfunction risks, we achieve unprecedented malfunction prognostics for critical assets that are valuable today and indispensable tomorrow.
Conventional asset diagnostics utilizes only a fraction of the asset condition information that is actually available. Classic condition monitoring for instance infers the asset status being normal (green light), marginal (yellow light), or critical (red light) based on a simple comparison of parameter values to static or dynamic alarm values. Yet, depending on their nature and volatility, condition parameters may jump from a green to a red light within seconds, while a yellow light for another parameter can stay that way for months without turning red.
A thorough mathematical analysis of the archived empirical condition and process data over a significant period of time provides essential information on speed and nature of value changes, and allows computing the asset's condition gradient in different process scenarios over time. With this information, the prognostic power of observed asset condition data increases dramatically.
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Our Prognostic Report provides variable prognostic horizons, e.g. 10, 100, and 1,000-day horizons, allowing benefits of optimal maintenance scheduling in the short, medium, and long term. For reliability managers interested in the big picture of their asset's condition, the prognostic horizons correspond to zoom levels: a short horizon allows a narrow scope with high resolution, and a long horizon allows a wide scope with lower resolution.
Different prognostic horizons achieve distinct levels of value added. Typically, the longer the prognostic horizon, the more money can be saved by optimizing maintenance and maintenance schedules.
Prognostic objectives achieved differ depending on the prognostic horizons:
- A prognostic horizon of a few days helps to reduce firefighting and overtime work following an alarm, e.g. by allowing better coordination of an unscheduled maintenance
- A prognostic horizon of 6 weeks helps to schedule an optimal operational response following an alarm, e.g. by moving work orders from an unscheduled to the next scheduled maintenance
- A prognostic horizon of 2 to 3 years enables significant savings on maintenance, e.g. by extending the operation time between major scheduled maintenance
- An even longer prognostic horizon enables determination of a cost and lifetime-optimal asset replacement and procurement strategy
- Explicit prognostic information with any prognostic horizon enhances the quality of routine condition monitoring, communication of insights, and alarm decisions
The length of the prognostic horizon and the quality of the prognosis depend on the asset, malfunctions, and condition data considered. Reliability managers and their condition experts get much clarity on their internal reliability objectives by reflecting on and discussing the prognostic target horizon for their asset.